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"Industry" 2018 robot industry trends and prospects, another opportunity for the motor industry!

Time:

18 Apr,2018

　　1. Open the robot racing mode

In 2015, China entered the first year of artificial intelligence. Since then, BAT and other Internet companies have set foot in the field of robots. Up to now, BAT has successively established research and development institutions related to robot basic science and technology.

In 2016, Tencent established AI Lab to shoulder Tencent's basic research and application exploration in the field of artificial intelligence. At present, Tencent AI Lab has more than 70 scientists and more than 300 application engineers. The research and development results have been applied to hundreds of products such as WeChat, QQ and Daily Express. The birth of the robot laboratory "Robotics X" means that Tencent will open up a new battlefield in the field of artificial intelligence.

In October 2017, Alibaba announced the establishment of the "Dharma Academy" to conduct basic science and disruptive technological innovation research. It is reported that the Dharma Academy will include the Asian Dharma Academy, the American Dharma Academy, and the European Dharma Academy, and will set up laboratories with different research directions in Beijing, Hangzhou, Singapore, Israel, San Mateo, Bellevue, Moscow and other places.

Just in January 2018, Baidu Research Institute announced the establishment of "Business Intelligence Laboratory" and "Robot and Automatic Driving Laboratory". At the same time, three world-class scientists in the field of artificial intelligence Kenneth Ward Church, Huan Jun and Xiong Hui also joined Baidu Research Institute. At present, Baidu Research Institute has more than 2000 scientists and engineers, and has established a lineup of seven world-class scientists and five laboratories.

Figure 1:BAT's layout in the robotics sector Source: compiled by the Foresight Industry Research Institute.

　　2 the rapid growth of the market development potential is huge

At present, China's robot market has entered a period of rapid development, with a market size of about US $6.28 billion in 2017 and an average growth rate of 28% from 2012 to 2017.

Chart 2:2012-2017 China's robot market size Source: Forward-looking Industry Research Institute.

Among them, industrial robots have become the world's largest application market for five consecutive years. The demand for service robots has huge potential, the application scenarios of special robots have been significantly expanded, the localization of core components has been accelerated, and a large number of innovative companies have emerged, and some technologies have been able to form large-scale products., And has obvious advantages in certain fields.

In 2017, industrial robots were the main product in the robot market, accounting for 67.2 percent of the total, with a market size of $4.22 billion billion. In addition, thanks to the investment of Internet giants in the application of robots in service scenarios, service robots account for more than 20%, and the market size reaches 1.32 billion billion US dollars.

Chart 3: China's robot market structure in 2017 Source: Prospective Industry Research Institute.

　　3 Industrial robots

China's industrial robot market is developing rapidly, accounting for about 1/3 of the global market share, and is the world's largest industrial robot application market. In 2016, China's industrial robots maintained rapid growth, with sales increasing by 31.3. According to the application type, the domestic market currently has the highest proportion of handling and loading robots, reaching 61%; followed by assembly robots, accounting for 15%, which is 6 percentage points higher than that of welding robots.

At present, the demand for intelligent transformation and upgrading of China's manufacturing is increasingly prominent, and the market demand for industrial robots is still strong. It is estimated that the sales volume of industrial robots in China exceeded 110000 units for the first time in 2017, and the market size reached 4.22 billion billion US dollars.

Chart 4:2012-2017 China's industrial robot sales and data source: forward-looking industry research institute finishing.

Chart 5: China's industrial robot market application structure Source: Forward-looking Industry Research Institute.

On the demand side, in the future, with the rapid rise of labor costs in China, the demographic dividend will gradually disappear, and the mode of production will change to flexible, intelligent and fine, and it is urgent to build a new manufacturing system characterized by intelligent manufacturing. the demand for industrial robots will show a substantial increase.

According to the "2018-2023 China Industrial Robot Industry Production and Marketing Demand Forecast and Transformation and Upgrading Analysis Report" released by the Prospective Industry Research Institute, the domestic market size will double by 2023 and further expand to nearly US $8 billion.

Chart 6: Sales of Industrial Robots in China from 2018 to 2023 and Source: Prospective Industry Research Institute

In addition, on the supply side, according to the "Robot Industry Development Plan (2016-2020)" issued by the three ministries and commissions, by 2020, the annual output of China's own brand industrial robots will reach 100000 units, and the annual output of six-axis and above industrial robots will reach more than 50000 units. The main technical indicators such as speed, load, accuracy, and weight ratio of industrial robots have reached the level of similar foreign products, and the average time to failure (MTBF) has reached 80000 hours.

　　4 Service robots

The market scale of service robots in China is expanding rapidly, and it has become a bright spot in the application of robot market. In 2016, China's service robot market size reached 1.03 billion billion US dollars; it is estimated that China's service robot market size will reach 1.32 billion billion US dollars in 2017, an increase of about 28% over the same period last year, higher than the average annual growth rate of the global service robot market.

Among them, the market size of domestic service robots, medical service robots and public service robots in China is US $0.53 billion, US $0.41 billion and US $0.38 billion respectively, and the growth rate of domestic service robots is relatively leading.

Chart 7: China's service robot market application structure Source: Forward-looking Industry Research Institute.

By the end of 2017, the number of people over 60 in China had reached 0.241 billion, accounting for 17.3 per cent of the total population. The demand for service robots in the fields of aging social services, medical rehabilitation, disaster relief, public safety, education and entertainment, and major scientific research is also showing a trend of rapid development.

According to the "Robot Industry Development Plan (2016-2020)", by 2020, my country's annual sales revenue of service robots will exceed 30 billion yuan, and small-scale production and application will be realized in the fields of helping the elderly and the disabled, medical rehabilitation, etc. Therefore, according to the "2018-2023 China Service Robot Industry Development Prospects and Investment Strategic Planning Analysis Report" released by the Prospective Industry Research Institute, the market size of my country's service robots will grow to US $6.6 billion.

Chart 8:2012-2023 China's service robot sales and data source: forward-looking industry research institute finishing.

　　5 Special robots

At present, my country's special robot market has maintained rapid development, and various types continue to appear. In response to earthquakes, floods and extreme weather, as well as mine disasters, fires, security and other public safety events, there is a prominent demand for special robots.

In 2016, China's special robot market reached $0.63 billion billion, a growth rate of 16.7 percent, slightly higher than the global growth rate of special robots. Among them, the market size of military application robots, extreme operation robots and emergency rescue robots is US $0.48 billion, US $0.11 billion and US $0.04 billion respectively, of which extreme operation robots are the fastest growing areas.

Chart 9: China's special robot market application structure Source: Forward-looking Industry Research Institute.

In 2017, it is estimated that the market size of special robots in China is 0.74 billion US dollars. With the further improvement of the safety awareness of Chinese enterprises, special robots will gradually be used to replace people in high-risk places and complex environments. By 2023, the domestic market demand for special robots is expected to reach $1.87 billion billion.